High-Risk, High-Reward
An aggressive HP strategy aiming to maximize returns by taking on higher levels of risk. This approach is typically favored by investors with a strong risk tolerance and a longer investment horizon, allowing them to withstand short-term market volatility in pursuit of higher gains.
2025
Investment Allocation
We aim to maximize returns by taking on higher risks, typically favoring US equities and high-growth assets. There is a strong risk tolerance and longer investment horizon than usual, especially for CFDs.
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50% Stocks (including US Indices/US ETFs) – Companies with high potential for expansion.
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20% Cryptocurrencies – High-risk but potentially high-reward assets.
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10% Commodities – Crude oil or industrial metals for economic growth exposure.
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20% Forex/USD – Attempting to benefit from USD future appreciation.
Investment Considerations
To achieve in creating a strategy with high return/reward potential we invest in risk-assets. These, however, are investments that carry a high degree of volatility and uncertainty regarding their future value. Risk-assets have the potential for significant price fluctuations, which means they can yield substantial gains but also carry the risk of major losses. The portfolio therefore includes:
♦ US Stocks: a selection of stocks that fullfill certain criteria such as high fair value, high analyst target, fair financial health, fair revenue growth, low valuation ratios with potential for high growth.
♦ US Indices: Indices track a broad market or sector, reducing the risk tied to individual stock performance. The US500 index for example represents a broad range of companies across multiple sectors. Thus, combining the index with the stocks is reducing the risk that the portfolio is overly dependent on just a number of companies. This enhances risk management, provides broader exposure, and introduces strategic investment benefits.
♦ Crypto: Including cryptocurrency in the portfolio can offer several potential benefits, but it also comes with risks. Crypto assets prices are quite volatile but they have a low correlation with traditional assets like stocks. Their prices can experience drastic fluctuations, leading to large gains so they are included in this strategy since we are aware and willing to take the risk involved.
♦ Commodities: Including commodities like gold, crude oil, natural gas in a portfolio offers unique advantages, particularly in terms of diversification, inflation protection, and hedging against market risks. They have low correlation with traditional assets like stocks. In this strategy we consider only energy commodities, crude oil in particular. It can benefit from inflationary environments, it is generally essential to industries and there is high demand for it when the economy is expanding.
♦ Forex/USD: To be able to benefit for the rising or falling value ot the dollar, we include forex CFD positions in the strategy. Buying a USD/JPY CFD means speculation on the price movement of the currency pair, that the US dollar will strengthen against the Japanese yen. Foreign investment can contribute to stock market gains and when foreign investment flows into the US economy, it generally strengthens the US dollar (USD).
Calculated Risk and Performance
In this section, we aim to estimate the potential risk of loss and potential performance based on historical data and current market conditions. These calculations are based on a passive approach to portfolio management, not active. However the strategy involves algorithmic and active approach that could result in having better performance than just a passive approach.
The timing of each investment is crucial for assessing both potential losses and expected returns on an annual basis. Since the strategy involves taking a high level of risk, the worst case scenario will involve high drawdown potential.
♦ Stocks: Consider -40% for each
Worst performance/drawdown figure varies for stocks in a range of 30%-60% during the past 5 years.
♦ USTEC: Consider -30% drawdown.
The most recent and worst performance/drawdown figure was – 33.61% in 2022. Relative drawdown figure was around – 28% for 2020.
♦ Bitcoin: Consider -65% drawdown.
The figure -65% was the worst resecntly in 2020 followed only by the current figure (2025) which is close to just -7%.
♦ US Crude oil: Consider -20% drawdown.
It is well-known that relative drawdown reached a figure of around -100% in 2020 before recovery. However let’s consider that to be unlikely to happen in the future and take the worst performance per year which was -20% for the last 5 years.
♦ EUR/USD: Consider -15% drawdown from the short position.
In this strategy, we take a short position on the FX CFD, aiming to profit from the appreciation of the USD against the EUR. The pair experienced its worst relative drawdown in 2020, reaching approximately -15%. As of 2025, it is currently exhibiting a 12% performance.
The below takes into account multiple figures for estimating the upside potential. These figures include among others historical data and analysts estimates. It also takes into account that the startegy is passive only even though regular rebalancing takes place and other actions such as averaging when appropriate, serving the best interest of the portfolio and followers of the strategy.
– Underlying Asset: US Stocks –
After carefully analyzing the fundamentals of a group of US stocks and current market conditions for this year, we selected the below stocks for this strategy. Pfizer, PayPal, Exxon, Amazon, Apple, and Microsoft offers a well-balanced mix of healthcare, financial technology, energy, and technology sectors. This diversified selection balances growth potential with defensive assets, making it resilient to market fluctuations.
This strategy allocates 50% of the investment amount to these stocks.
Pfizer Inc / NYSE:PFE
Initial assessment date: 19.04.2025
Pfizer’s stock is currently trading at a low valuation, making it potentially attractive for investors. Despite recent struggles, the company has resumed growth, with revenues surging 32% year-over-year in its latest earnings report. Additionally, Pfizer is focusing on expanding its oncology business, which could drive future profitability.
PFE Seasonals – Performance per Year
PFE Analysis & Forecast
♦ Price: 22.14 USD Fair Value: 32.18 USD (undervalued) Upside: 45.3%
♦ Analysts Sentiment: 30.16 USD (BUY) Upside: 36.24%
♦ Company Performance and Financial Health: Good
♦ Seasonals: Based on 4Year Average -20% Upside: -3.45%
♦ Sector: Healthcare
PFE 2025 Performance
PFE Current Performance
PayPal Holdings Inc / NASDAQGS:PYPL
Initial assessment date: 19.04.2025
PayPal’s stock is trading below $100, making it an attractive buy for investors looking for a fintech company with growth potential. The company is launching the “PayPal Everywhere” campaign, expanding beyond online payments into physical retail. Collaborations with Verifone, Shopify, and Fiserv aim to enhance checkout experiences.
PYPL Seasonals – Performance per Year
PYPL Analysis & Forecast
♦ Price: 61.00 USD Fair Value: 92.32 USD (undervalued) Upside: 51.35%
♦ Analysts Sentiment: 86.03 USD (BUY) Upside: 41.03%
♦ Company Performance and Financial Health: Good
♦ Seasonals: Based on 4Year Average -18% Upside: 11.35%
♦ Sector: Financial Services / Credit Services
PYPL 2025 Performance
PYPL Current Performance
Exxon Mobil Corp / NYSE:XOM
Initial assessment date: 20.04.2025
It is considered one of the best undervalued energy stocks. The company is investing $30 billion in low-carbon projects while maintaining strong oil and gas production. Exxon plans to double its earnings potential by 2027 through strategic investments in low-cost-of-supply projects and high-value performance chemicals. Anticipated policy changes under the new U.S. administration could ease restrictions on drilling and emissions, boosting Exxon’s margins. It is also benefiting from the growing demand for natural gas, driven by electricity needs and energy exports.
XOM Seasonals – Performance per Year
XOM Analysis & Forecast
♦ Price: 106.92 USD Fair Value: 126.20 USD (undervalued) Upside: 18.03%
♦ Analysts Sentiment: 124.83 USD (BUY) Upside: 16.75%
♦ Company Performance and Financial Health: Good
♦ Seasonals: Based on 4Year Average 18% Upside: 18.41%
♦ Sector: Energy / Oil & Gas
XOM 2025 Performance
XOM Current Performance
Amazon.com Inc / NASDAQGS:AMZN
Initial assessment date: 20.04.2025
The company has a strong presence in e-commerce, cloud computing, and artificial intelligence. Amazon Web Services (AWS) remains the leader in cloud computing. It still commands 40% of the U.S. e-commerce market and is expanding its AI capabilities, positioning Amazon as a competitor to Nvidia in the AI chip market. Major investment firms like Morgan Stanley and Citigroup have reiterated their Buy ratings on Amazon, with price targets suggesting significant upside potential.
AMZN Seasonals – Performance per Year
AMZN Analysis & Forecast
♦ Price: 172.61 USD Fair Value: 212.21 USD (undervalued) Upside: 22.94%
♦ Analysts Sentiment: 151.50 USD (BUY) Upside: 45.70%
♦ Company Performance and Financial Health: Good
♦ Seasonals: Based on 4Year Average 8% Upside: 19.67%
♦ Sector: Consumer Cyclical / Internet Retail Industry
AMZN 2025 Performance
AMZN Current Performance
Apple Inc / NASDAQGS:AAPL
Initial assessment date: 20.04.2025
Apple remains the largest company in the world, ahead of competitors like Nvidia and Microsoft. Its ecosystem ensures high customer retention, making its revenue streams more predictable. The company has committed to spending over $500 billion in the U.S. over the next four years and has stability in regards to dividend making it attractive for investors. Notably, it is getting deeper into AI-driven healthcare solutions, which could be a major growth area.
AAPL Seasonals – Performance per Year
AAPL Analysis & Forecast
♦ Price: 196.98 USD Fair Value: 177.74 USD Upside: -9.77%
♦ Analysts Sentiment: 237.39 USD (BUY) Upside: 20.51%
♦ Company Performance and Financial Health: Good
♦ Seasonals: Based on 4Year Average 10% Upside: 28.97%
♦ Sector: Technology / Consumer Electronics
AAPL 2025 Performance
AAPL Current Performance
Microsoft Corporation / NASDAQGS:MSFT
Initial assessment date: 20.04.2025
The company has a strong positioning in artificial intelligence, cloud computing, and enterprise software. It continues to expand its AI capabilities, particularly through its partnership with OpenAI, making Azure a dominant force in AI-driven cloud computing. The company is leveraging AI and cloud innovations to maintain its competitive edge, despite premium valuations. Moreover, its portfolio spans gaming (Xbox), cloud computing (Azure), AI, cybersecurity, and enterprise solutions, ensuring stability across different markets. Its strong balance sheet and steady revenue streams make it a reliable long-term investment.
MSFT Seasonals – Performance per Year
MSFT Analysis & Forecast
♦ Price: 367.78 USD Fair Value: 384.62 USD Upside: 4.58%
♦ Analysts Sentiment: 494.61 USD (BUY) Upside: 34.49%
♦ Company Performance and Financial Health: Good
♦ Seasonals: Based on 4Year Average 10% Upside: 28.97%
♦ Sector: Technology / Software Infrastructure Industry
MSFT 2025 Performance
MSFT Current Performance
– Underlying Asset: US Stock Indices –
Allocating a % to a stock index provides broad exposure to a big number of large U.S. companies across multiple sectors, reducing risk compared to individual stock picks. This is a step towards diversification and stability when it comes to investing in the US equities market. For this high-risk strategy we choose the US Tech 100 Index, which tracks the performance of the top 100 non-financial companies listed on the Nasdaq exchange. We are aiming to increase exposure to top-performing tech stocks which have shown strong growth. Tech stocks tend to experience larger price swings compared to more diversified sectors, thus higher risk is taken.
This strategy allocates 20% of the investment amount to this stock index and 30% to individual stocks. This is a total of 50% allocation of the initial investment to US equities. The portfolio is well-diversified, balancing healthcare, fintech, energy, consumer tech, and AI-driven growth. This is more suitable for investors that are comfortable with tech-heavy investments.
US Tech 100 Index (USTEC)
Initial assessment date: 21.04.2025
The USTEC Index, also known as the US Tech 100, tracks the performance of the top 100 non-financial companies listed on the Nasdaq stock exchange. In this strategy, we are trading the Cash CFD product, whose underlying asset is the futures derivative traded on a futures exchange.
The index has experienced significant volatility over the past few years, with periods of strong growth driven by major tech companies such as Apple, Microsoft, and Nvidia.
USTEC Seasonals – Performance per Year
USTEC Analysis & Forecast
In 2022, it faced a sharp decline of approximately 33% from its peak due to rising interest rates and economic uncertainty. The following years saw a recovery, particularly in 2023. However, in 2025, the index declined once again by -12.57%, driven by macroeconomic uncertainties that triggered a risk-off sentiment among investors.
♦ Price: 181.18 USD
♦ Seasonals: Based on 4Year Average 8.85% Upside: 21.42%
♦ Sector: Heavily weighted toward the technology sector
USTEC 2025 Performance
USTEC Current Performance
– Underlying Asset: Crypto –
We allocate 20% of the initial investment to cryptocurrencies, aiming to strike a balance between traditional growth and high-risk potential. A portfolio consisting of 50% US equities and 20% cryptocurrency is aggressive, targeting growth while also carrying inherent risks and considerations. Cryptocurrency faces potential regulatory shifts that could impact its value; however, it offers a distinct asset class that does not always move in sync with traditional markets.
This strategy allocates a total of 70% to the above risk assets, aligning with its risk tolerance for aggressive growth.
BTC/USD – Bitcoin US Dollar
Initial assessment date: 21.04.2025
Bitcoin is a decentralized digital currency that allows peer-to-peer transactions without the need for a central authority like a bank. There will only ever be 21 million bitcoins in existence, making it a scarce asset.
Macroeconomic uncertainty and rising interest rates can cause a large decline of its value while market optimism can cause strong recoveries and growth.
BTC/USD Seasonals – Performance per Year
BTC/USD Analysis & Forecast
Bitcoin’s performance in 2025 is expected to be shaped by institutional adoption, regulatory developments, and macroeconomic conditions. Analysts predict Bitcoin could reach between $115,000 and $167,598, depending on market trends.
♦ Price: 87.283 USD
♦ Seasonals: Based on 4Year Average 48.25% Upside: 55.5%
♦ Sector: Financial Services sector / Cryptocurrency and Blockchain Technology industries
BTC/USD 2025 Performance
BTC/USD Current Performance
– Underlying Asset: Commodities –
To introduce greater diversification and exploit the potential increase of crude oil’s price this year we allocate 10% of the initial investment to commodities such as US crude oil. Adding crude oil provides exposure to the energy sector, reducing reliance on tech-heavy US equities and volatile crypto. Commodities like crude oil often perform well during periods of inflation or economic uncertainty.
Crude oil can be more advantageous than gold when the portfolio has a high risk tolerance. During periods of economic expansion, oil demand rises, potentially delivering higher returns compared to gold, which moves more slowly. Oil demand correlates with strong economic activity, complementing equity and crypto investments. Gold however, often moves in the opposite direction, acting as a safety net rather than a growth driver.
US Crude Oil / WTI
Initial assessment date: 21.04.2025
The U.S. remains the top oil producer, reinforcing its dominance in global energy markets. Crude oil’s demand is projected to be strong this year and the market to be stable.
Cash CFD Crude oil’s price is derived by futures, from the underlying futures markets. CFD Symbol is XTIUSD or USOIL or similar.
WTI Seasonals – Performance per Year
WTI Analysis & Forecast
Energy remains a core sector, benefiting from industrial growth and geopolitical shifts. If uncertainty lowers this year and the economy is heading towards expansion, this will fuel higher industrial output, which boosts oil consumption. Sectors like manufacturing, transportation, and tech require energy, driving oil prices upward.
♦ Price: 62.79 USD
♦ Seasonals: Based on 4Year Average – 4.32% Upside: 9.35%
♦ Sector: Energy / Oil & Gas
WTI 2025 Performance
WTI Current Performance
– Underlying Asset: Currencies –
CFD trading in Forex, USD pairs, allows quick adjustments based on market trends and economic events. In this strategy we are allocating the remaining 20% to USD. Shorting EUR/USD means speculating that the U.S. dollar will strenghneed relative to the euro. This aligns with an investment strategy that favors USD exposure. If the U.S. economy outperforms the Eurozone, the dollar strengthens.
EUR/USD has grown significantly in 2025 despite a risk-off environment and higher interest rates, it suggests some unusual market forces at play. U.S. economic data has weakened, investors might be selling dollars in favor of alternative assets.
We expect the risk-off mood to weaken eventually. The USD may strengthen due to capital inflows into US stocks.
EUR/USD
Initial assessment date: 21.04.2025
The EUR/USD pair has been on a strong upward trend in 2025, reaching four-year highs. The movement of this pair is influenced by both currencies, so this year’s rally can be attributed to a combination of euro strength and dollar weakness.
The HP approach suggests short-selling the pair, as it has reached an unusually high level of performance this year. This implies speculating that the US dollar will eventually strengthen.
EUR/USD Seasonals – Performance per Year
EUR/USD Analysis & Forecast
The US Dollar Index fell to its lowest since March 2022, as traders lost confidence in the US economy. This was mainly due to growing expectations of Fed rate cuts, political uncertainty, and weaker economic data. On the other hand, the Eurozone economy showed resilience, with inflation cooling but remaining stable.
♦ Price: 1.15 USD Current Performance (2025): 12.10%
♦ Seasonals: Based on 4Year Average 1.24% Short Position Potential Gain: 10.8%
EUR/USD 2025 Performance
