Balanced Approach to Risk
2025
A strategy emphasizing broad exposure across metal assets while maintaining a moderate level of diversification. It seeks to maximize returns by strategically increasing risk during periods of heightened investor uncertainty. Metals are favored over equities due to their defensive characteristics and historical resilience during risk-off environments.
Investment Allocation
We aim to maximize returns by taking on higher risks during uncertain periods, typically favoring Gold which is considered safe-heaven asset. The below allocation of the inevstment/equity amount is a standard approach to investing. However, this is not always fixed. More allocation to Metals will be the case depending on market conditions.
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Silver 25% – High exposure to a single commodity; can be volatile.
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Gold 25% – Traditional hedge against inflation and market downturns
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Energy 15% – Includes oil, gas, renewables; cyclical and sensitive to global events
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US Indices 15% – Offers broad exposure to U.S. equities
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Non-US Indices 15% – Adds global diversification
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Crypto 5% – High-risk, high-reward; very volatile
Investment Considerations
This strategy reflects a high-conviction, speculative approach tailored for uncertain economic conditions, emphasizing precious metals as core assets. With silver and gold, it positions the portfolio to benefit from inflationary pressures, geopolitical instability, and potential currency devaluation. The inclusion of energy and crypto adds further exposure to assets that may thrive in volatile markets, while diversified equity holdings in U.S. and non-U.S. indices provide a stabilizing growth component. The strategy aims to capitalize on macroeconomic disruption and shifting investor sentiment.
♦ Heavy Commodities Exposure: Silver and gold together make up nearly half the portfolio. This is unusually high and could lead to underperformance during periods of economic growth when equities tend to outperform. Silver is more volatile than gold and has industrial uses, which could benefit from supply chain disruptions or green tech demand. Gold is classic safe haven. Strong hedge against inflation, currency devaluation, and geopolitical instability.
♦ Energy Exposure: Crude oil is Cyclical. Can benefit from inflation and supply shocks, but sensitive to demand fluctuations.
♦ Balanced Equity Exposure: Splitting between U.S. and non-U.S. indices is a solid diversification move. Even in uncertainty, large-cap U.S. stocks can offer resilience. Emerging markets may benefit from commodity booms, but also carry political risk.
♦ High Crypto Allocation: This is aggressive. Most traditional portfolios limit crypto to 1–5% due to its volatility. Can act as a hedge or speculative asset, but extremely volatile in uncertain environments.
Calculated Risk and Performance
In this section, we aim to estimate the potential risk of loss and potential performance based on historical data and current market conditions. The strategy involves algorithmic and active approach that could result in having better performance than just a passive approach. The timing of each investment is crucial for assessing both potential losses and expected returns on an annual basis.
RD: This is Relative Drawdown which is a volaitlity metric. During the period 2021-2025 we see that maximum relative dawdown for metals is close to 30%. We take this factor into consideration when assessing risk of loss. 2022 was a year full of uncertainty and risk-assets (including stocks and metals) have experienced huge drawdowns.
♦ In 2020, inflation decreased following the onset of COVID-19, while unemployment rose sharply. In response, interest rates were lowered to stimulate the economy. By 2021, the unemployment rate began to decline, but inflation increased due to a surge in demand for goods and services. This heightened demand also drove up the need for oil in business operations, leading to higher oil prices. The value of the US dollar weakened, making it relatively cheaper in 2021. Metals were less favored as investments; instead, people turned to stocks and riskier assets such as cryptocurrencies. This shift eventually contributed to rising inflation.
♦ In 2022, the unemployment rate fell to low levels, but inflation rose significantly. To combat inflation, the Federal Reserve began raising interest rates aggressively. As a result, the US dollar appreciated, making foreign investment in US stocks less attractive. Growing economic uncertainty led to reduced confidence in cryptocurrencies and even metals. However, metals were still favored by some investors as a hedge against inflation. The onset of war further drove up crude oil prices during the early stages.
♦ In 2023, interest rates remained high, and inflation began to decline as anticipated. Labor market data indicated a strong U.S. economy that was not severely impacted by elevated interest rates, with overall expectations remaining positive. The unemployment rate stayed low, and the U.S. dollar weakened slightly. After a challenging 2022, U.S. stocks made a remarkable recovery, while cryptocurrencies benefited from the renewed risk-on sentiment. Oil prices held steady, resisting a decline, particularly due to ongoing geopolitical tensions and conflicts.
♦ In 2024, as inflation declined, interest rate cuts were initiated to address emerging labor-related risks. Unemployment began to rise slightly, while the U.S. dollar remained stable without becoming more expensive. The U.S. stock market delivered a strong performance, fueled by falling inflation, increased investor confidence, and easing financial conditions. Enthusiasm around artificial intelligence played a major role in driving investments in both stocks and cryptocurrencies, reflecting a renewed risk-on sentiment. Crude oil prices rose but eventually stabilized.
♦ In 2025, interest rates in the U.S. remained high, while other central banks pursued aggressive rate cuts. Tariffs introduced by President Trump created significant uncertainty, causing stock markets to decline sharply until April. Although inflation was substantially reduced, labor market data began to reveal notable negative trends throughout the year. A government shutdown further fueled investor anxiety, triggering a risk-off sentiment. As a result, investors sought refuge in metals. Both stocks and cryptocurrencies were negatively impacted by the shutdown. Crude oil prices continued to decline.
Strategy Asset Allocation- November 2025
In 2025 we have seen an extraordinary performance for Metals due to current market conditions. A historical based approach suggests in not investing in metals at the moment. However for the rest of 2025, we will consider 50% equity allocation from the original full equity amount, taking less risk and increase in the future to 100%.
– Underlying Asset: XAUUSD (Gold) –
In 2025, gold has surged to historic levels, hitting 39 new all-time highs. This rally has been fueled by massive investor demand. Amid economic uncertainty, geopolitical tensions, and a weakening U.S. dollar, gold’s safe-haven appeal has intensified. Central banks have ramped up their gold reserves, adding to global demand. Analysts forecast prices could climb to $4,900-$5000 by year-end, with some projecting higher in 2026. Sovereign Gold Bonds and ETFs remain popular investment vehicles, with ETFs favored for liquidity and SGBs offering tax-free returns.
Gold / XAUUSD
Initial assessment date: 21.10.2025
Gold is having a historic year in 2025, delivering its strongest performance since 1979. Economic uncertainty, geopolitical tensions, and a weaker U.S. dollar have driven investors toward gold. Analysts now predict gold could reach $4,900 per ounce by the end of 2025, with some even eyeing $5,000–$6,000.
XAUUSD Seasonals – Performance per Year
XAUUSD Analysis & Forecast
♦ Price: 4217.98 USD
♦ Forecast Value: 5000 USD Upside: 18.5% EoY 2025
♦ Seasonals: Based on 4Year Average 18.73% Upside: -39.96%
♦ Asset Type: Commodity.
♦ Sector: Consumer and Industrial sectors.
XAUUSD 2025 Performance
XAUUSD Current Performance
– Underlying Asset: XAGUSD (Silver) –
In 2025, gold and silver have both delivered exceptional performances amid global economic uncertainty. Silver outpaced expectations, climbing over 67% to $52.18 per ounce, supported by strong industrial demand and investor interest. Silver’s affordability and dual role as an industrial and investment metal have made it a standout asset this year.
Silver / XAGUSD
Initial assessment date: 21.10.2025
Silver broke through key resistance levels, reaching prices not seen in over a decade. Strong inflows from retail and institutional investors have fueled the rally, driven by silver’s affordability compared to gold. Analysts predict silver could test the $50–$88 range between 2025 and 2028, with bullish sentiment persisting.
Silver Seasonals – Performance per Year
Silver Analysis & Forecast
♦ Price: 49.74 USD
♦ Forecast Value: 88 USD Upside: 76% EoY 2025
♦ Seasonals: Based on 4Year Average 15.94% Upside: -52.21%
♦ Asset Type: Commodity.
♦ Sector: Consumer and Industrial sectors.
Silver 2025 Performance
Silver Current Performance
– Underlying Asset: US Stock Index – USTEC
In 2025, the USTEC index—which tracks major U.S. technology stocks—has shown strong bullish momentum. After a period of consolidation earlier in the year, the index broke out decisively, supported by rising volume and technical indicators. This rally reflects renewed investor confidence, especially in tech-driven sectors like artificial intelligence and cloud computing.
US Tech 100 Index (USTEC)
Initial assessment date: 21.10.2025
USTEC’s performance in 2025 highlights the resilience and growth of the U.S. tech sector amid shifting global economic conditions. The overall structure suggests minimal downside risk in the short term, with room for further gains if macroeconomic conditions remain favorable.
USTEC/NAS100 Seasonals – Performance per Year
USTEC/NAS100 Analysis & Forecast
♦ Price: 25,137 USD
♦ Forecast Value: 26,000 USD Upside: 3% EoY 2025
♦ Seasonals: Based on 4Year Average 19.28% Upside: -0.87%
♦ Asset Type: Stock Index.
♦ Sector: Tech Sector. Also includes exposure to several related sectors.
USTEC/NAS100 2025 Performance
USTEC/NAS100 Current Performance
– Underlying Asset: Non-US Stock Index – STOXX50
In 2025, the USTEC index—which tracks major U.S. technology stocks—has shown strong bullish momentum. After a period of consolidation earlier in the year, the index broke out decisively, supported by rising volume and technical indicators. This rally reflects renewed investor confidence, especially in tech-driven sectors like artificial intelligence and cloud computing.
STOXX50 Index (EU50)
Initial assessment date: 21.10.2025
In 2025, the STOXX Europe 50 Index experienced a year of steady growth and resilience, reflecting broader optimism in European markets.
The Index benefited from solid earnings across European blue-chip companies, increased ETF inflows, and improving investor sentiment.
STOXX50 Index (EU50) Seasonals – Performance per Year
STOXX50 Index (EU50) Analysis & Forecast
♦ Price: 5,679 EUR
♦ Forecast Value: 5,828 EUR Upside: 3% EoY 2025
♦ Seasonals: Based on 4Year Average 10% Upside: -6.34%
♦ Asset Type: Stock Index.
♦ Sector: European blue-chip companies across sectors like technology, finance, and consumer goods.
STOXX50 Index (EU50) 2025 Performance
STOXX50 Index (EU50) Current Performance
– Underlying Asset: Crypto –
2025 has been a transformative year for digital assets, marked by strong growth, institutional adoption, and technological innovation.The market has shifted away from hype-driven cycles to more sustainable growth. Bitcoin had a remarkable year in 2025, marked by strong price growth, institutional adoption, and favorable regulatory developments.
BTC/USD – Bitcoin US Dollar
Initial assessment date: 22.10.2025
Bitcoin Bitcoin had a strong year, driven by institutional adoption, regulatory clarity, and macroeconomic shifts. Analysts forecast potential highs of $200,000 by the end of 2025 if Bitcoin sustains momentum above key thresholds.
Major firms increased BTC holdings, boosting demand. U.S. policies became more favorable, encouraging institutional participation
BTC/USD Seasonals – Performance per Year
BTC/USD Analysis & Forecast
♦ Price: 108.180 USD
♦ Forecast Value: 200,00 USD Upside: 84% EoY 2025
♦ Seasonals: Based on 4Year Average 54.41% Upside: 39.78%
♦ Asset Type: Cryptocurrency.
♦ Sector: Cryptocurrency sector, financial technology (fintech).
BTC/USD 2025 Performance
BTC/USD Current Performance
– Underlying Asset: Commodities – WTI Crude Oil
2025 was a volatile year for WTI, shaped by geopolitical tensions, shifting OPEC+ strategies, and global economic uncertainty. WTI fell moderately in August due to OPEC+ unwinding production cuts earlier than expected. While a U.S. government shutdown added uncertainty, the primary drivers were rooted in global supply-demand dynamics.
US Crude Oil / WTI
Initial assessment date: 22.10.2025
WTI crude oil prices fell significantly in 2025. OPECs+ supply glut overwhelmed demand recovery, pushing prices down. There was slower-than-expected economic recovery in China and Europe. U.S. demand growth stalled. A trade war initiated by the U.S. disrupted global supply chains, further suppressing oil consumption and investor confidence.
WTI Seasonals – Performance per Year
WTI Analysis & Forecast
♦ Price: 58.23 USD
♦ Forecast Value: 70 USD Upside: 20% EoY 2025
♦ Seasonals: Based on 4Year Average 7.75% Upside: 27.86%
♦ Asset Type: Energy/commodity.
♦ Sector: Energy sector.
WTI 2025 Performance
