Minimized Risk – Sustainable Returns
A moderately conservative strategy aims to strike a balance between capital preservation and steady growth, ensuring a low-risk, sustainable return over time. It is designed for investors who prioritize stability but still seek moderate gains, avoiding excessive volatility while maintaining consistent progress.
Investment Allocation
We aim to balance market exposure with tangible asset stability. Indices provide access to broad economic growth, while commodities act as a hedge against inflation and market downturns. This diversification reduces volatility, offering resilience in uncertain times. By combining steady market performance with the intrinsic value of physical assets, this strategy ensures a measured approach to risk, stability, and long-term financial security.
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40% US Indices/US ETFs – Sectors with high potential for expansion.
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60% Commodities – Crude oil or industrial metals for economic growth exposure.
Investment Considerations
We designed a strategy that prioritizes stability and steady returns, ensuring growth while maintaining a cautious approach to risk management. The portfolio allocation reflects a balanced moderately conservative strategy, combining indices for diversified market exposure, commodities for inflation protection and tangible asset stability. This approach allows for consistent financial progress while safeguarding capital against excessive market fluctuations.
♦ US Indices: involves adding diversified market exposure while maintaining stability and predictability. U.S. indices, such as the S&P 500, Dow Jones, or Nasdaq, are composed of established companies with strong financial fundamentals, offering steady growth potential with lower volatility.
♦ Commodities: Including commodities, such as gold and crude oil shows strong focus on asset stability and inflation protection while diversifying away from traditional equity market fluctuations. Commodities often act as a hedge against economic uncertainty, making this allocation valuable in times of market volatility.
Calculated Risk and Performance
In this section, we aim to estimate the potential risk of loss and potential performance based on historical data and current market conditions. These calculations are based on a passive approach to portfolio management, not active. However the strategy involves algorithmic and active approach that could result in having better performance than just a passive approach.
The timing of each investment is crucial for assessing both potential losses and expected returns on an annual basis. The strategy involves a low risk level so the worst case scenario will involve lower drawdown potential, lower than the one of riskier strategies.
♦ S&P500/US500: Consider -20% drawdown.
The most recent and worst performance/drawdown figure was – 19.82% in 2022. Relative drawdown figure was around – 35.78% for 2020.
♦ USTEC/US100: Consider -30% drawdown.
The most recent and worst performance/drawdown figure was – 33.61% in 2022. Relative drawdown figure was around – 28% for 2020.
♦ US Crude oil: Consider -20% drawdown.
It is well-known that relative drawdown reached a figure of around -100% in 2020 before recovery. However let’s consider that to be unlikely to happen in the future and take the worst performance per year which was -20% for the last 5 years.
♦ Gold/XAUUSD: Consider -5.81% drawdown (long). Consider -27% drawdown from a short position.
Gold prices have surged by approximately 30% in 2025, continuing their strong upward trend from previous years. A sharp decline seems unlikely but a 10% pullback could occur if economic conditions improve and investors shift towards riskier assets.
♦ Silver/XAGUSD: Consider -14.42% drawdown (long). Consider -46% drawdown from a short position.
In 2025, silver has experienced a near 5% price increase year-to-date, driven by strong industrial demand and inflation concerns. Forecasts suggest potential short-term pullbacks before continuing its upward trend. Some projections indicate silver may dip by 5–10% at certain points in the year.
The below takes into account multiple figures for estimating the upside potential. These figures include among others historical data and analysts estimates. It also takes into account that the startegy is passive only even though regular rebalancing takes place and other actions such as averaging when appropriate, serving the best interest of the portfolio and followers of the strategy.
– Underlying Asset: US Stock Indices –
Incorporating both USTEC (Nasdaq-100) and US500 (S&P 500) into the investment structure adds an excellent balance of growth and stability. USTEC, with its focus on technology and innovation-driven companies, offers high-growth potential, capitalizing on sectors that thrive in rapidly evolving markets. Meanwhile, US500, covering broader market sectors, provides diversification and resilience, ensuring exposure to a more stable performance across industries.
Together, these indices complement the below commodities allocation by balancing risk and opportunity, allowing the strategy to withstand economic shifts while benefiting from upward trends.
Standard and Poor’s 500 Index (S&P500)
Latest assessment date: 27.04.2025
The S&P 500 Index (or US500) is a market-capitalization-weighted index that tracks 500 leading publicly traded companies in the U.S. It serves as a benchmark for the overall stock market, reflecting the performance of major industries such as technology, healthcare, finance, and energy.
The index has shown resilience over the past few years, experiencing strong gains in 2021 (+26.89%), 2023 (+24.23%), and 2024 (+23.31%) as economic recovery and tech sector expansion fueled growth. However, 2022 (-19.44%) saw a sharp decline due to inflation concerns and aggressive interest rate hikes, and 2025 (-12.3% YTD) has faced market corrections and economic uncertainty.
♦ Price: 5,525 USD
♦ Seasonals: Based on 4Year Average 5.73% Upside: 11.60%
Seasonals – Performance per Year
US Tech 100 Index (USTEC)
Latest assessment date: 21.04.2025
The USTEC Index, also known as the US Tech 100, tracks the performance of the top 100 non-financial companies listed on the Nasdaq stock exchange. In this strategy, we are trading the Cash CFD product, whose underlying asset is the futures derivative traded on a futures exchange.
The index has experienced significant volatility over the past few years, with periods of strong growth driven by major tech companies such as Apple, Microsoft, and Nvidia. In 2022, it faced a sharp decline of approximately 33% from its peak due to rising interest rates and economic uncertainty. The following years saw a recovery, particularly in 2023. However, in 2025, the index declined once again by -12.57%, driven by macroeconomic uncertainties that triggered a risk-off sentiment among investors.
♦ Price: 181.18 USD
♦ Seasonals: Based on 4Year Average 8.85% Upside: 21.42%
Seasonals – Performance per Year
– Underlying Asset: Commodities –
We allocate 60% of the initial investment to commodities such as US crude, gold and silver. This allocation to commodities provides key benefits, including hedging against inflation, diversifying a portfolio, and offering protection during economic uncertainty. Gold and silver serve as safe-haven assets, preserving value during financial instability, while crude oil’s price movements are driven by global supply-demand dynamics. Additionally, commodities can generate high returns in bullish cycles
Combining 60% commodities (U.S. crude, gold, and silver) with 40% U.S. indices creates a balanced investment structure that merges stability, diversification, and growth potential. This blend enhances risk management, as commodities often perform well during market downturns, while indices capture gains in economic upcycles, ensuring a more resilient portfolio over time.
US Crude Oil / WTI
Latest assessment date: 21.04.2025
The U.S. remains the top oil producer, reinforcing its dominance in global energy markets. Crude oil’s demand is projected to be strong this year and the market to be stable. Energy remains a core sector, benefiting from industrial growth and geopolitical shifts. If uncertainty lowers this year and the economy is heading towards expansion, this will fuel higher industrial output, which boosts oil consumption. Sectors like manufacturing, transportation, and tech require energy, driving oil prices upward.
Cash CFD Crude oil’s price is derived by futures, from the underlying futures markets. CFD Symbol is XTIUSD or USOIL or similar.
♦ Price: 62.79 USD
♦ Seasonals: Based on 4Year Average – 4.32% Upside: 9.35%
Seasonals – Performance per Year
Gold / XAUUSD
Latest assessment date: 27.04.2025
Gold has experienced a strong upward trend in recent years, driven by inflation concerns, central bank demand, and geopolitical uncertainty. This year, 2025, gold prices have continued their rally, reaching record highs above $3,275 per ounce. Analysts attribute this surge to economic instability, trade tensions, and increased institutional buying.
While gold remains a safe-haven asset, future corrections could occur if interest rates stabilize and speculative positions unwind. Gold is currently undergoing a correction after reaching highs of $3,500 per ounce. Some experts anticipate a moderation in growth, with potential corrections of 2-3% in the coming months.
Cash CFD Gold’s price is derived by futures, from the underlying futures markets. CFD Symbol is XAUUSD or similar.
♦ Price: 3,319 USD Current Performance (2025): 24.87%
♦ Seasonals: Based on 4Year Average 16.42% Short Position Potential Gain: 8.44%
Seasonals – Performance per Year
Silver / XAGUSD
Latest assessment date: 27.04.2025
Silver has shown notable price movements over the past few years, influenced by economic trends, industrial demand, and its role as a safe-haven asset. In 2025, silver has experienced a 14% rally, reaching $34.10 per ounce as of mid-March
Recent fluctuations have been observed due to global trade developments and currency movements. It is expected to experience moderate corrections in 2025, with price fluctuations ranging between -5% to -10% throughout the year.
Cash CFD Silver’s price is derived by futures, from the underlying futures markets. CFD Symbol is XAGUSD or similar.
♦ Price: 33.02 USD Current Performance (2025): 11.85%
♦ Seasonals: Based on 4Year Average 9.5% Short Position Potential Gain: 2.35%
Seasonals – Performance per Year
