Risk-Reward Balance
A moderate growth strategy aims to balance risk and return, seeking steady capital appreciation while mitigating excessive volatility. Investors following this approach have exposure to assets with growth potential while maintaining a level of stability. It is suitable for investors who want controlled risk with moderate upside.
2025
Investment Allocation
We aim to maximize returns by taking on higher risks, typically favoring US equities and high-growth assets. There is a strong risk tolerance and longer investment horizon than usual, especially for CFDs.
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40% Stocks (including US Indices/US ETFs) – Companies with high potential for expansion.
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10% Cryptocurrencies – High-risk but potentially high-reward assets.
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40% Commodities – Crude oil or industrial metals for economic growth exposure.
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10% Forex/USD – Attempting to benefit from USD future appreciation.
Investment Considerations
We created a strategy that emphasizes a thoughtful approach to investing—pursuing opportunities for growth while carefully managing risk. The portfolio allocation reflects a balanced moderate growth strategy, combining stocks for expansion potential, commodities for economic exposure and chance for stability during inflationary periods, forex for currency appreciation, and cryptocurrencies for high-risk, high-reward opportunities.
♦ US Stocks: A selection of stocks that balance growth potential and stability, with some offering strong expansion opportunities while others providing market resilience.
♦ US Indices: the strategy combines diversified U.S. equities with the S&P 500 (US500), ensuring broad market exposure while balancing growth-driven stocks with defensive assets for stability and expansion potential.
♦ Crypto: the strategy incorporates a small allocation to cryptocurrencies capturing high-risk, high-reward opportunities, enhancing diversification and potential upside within a dynamic market environment.
♦ Commodities: Including commodities, such as gold and crude oil, can provide economic stability and inflation protection, with a heavier weighting than typical moderate growth portfolios. Gold acts as a safe haven during market uncertainty, while crude oil offers exposure to global economic growth and supply dynamics. The combination enhances diversification, but balancing it with stocks and crypto ensures better long-term expansion without excessive reliance on commodity price cycles.
♦ Forex/USD: To be able to benefit for the rising or falling value ot the dollar, we include forex CFD positions in the strategy. The EUR/USD currency pair is one of the most liquid and widely traded forex pairs. Since commodities and equities can be influenced by inflation and economic cycles, holding a USD position can act as a stabilizer. A stronger dollar often correlates with lower commodity prices, helping balance exposure.
Calculated Risk and Performance
In this section, we aim to estimate the potential risk of loss and potential performance based on historical data and current market conditions. These calculations are based on a passive approach to portfolio management, not active. However the strategy involves algorithmic and active approach that could result in having better performance than just a passive approach.
The timing of each investment is crucial for assessing both potential losses and expected returns on an annual basis. The strategy involves a moderate risk level so the worst case scenario will involve a moderate drawdown potential, lower than the one of the aggressive growth strategy.
♦ Stocks: Consider -40% for each
Worst performance/drawdown figure varies for stocks in a range of 30%-60% during the past 5 years.
♦ S&P500/US500: Consider -20% drawdown.
The most recent and worst performance/drawdown figure was – 19.82% in 2022. Relative drawdown figure was around – 35.78% for 2020.
♦ Bitcoin: Consider -65% drawdown.
The figure -65% was the worst resecntly in 2020 followed only by the current figure (2025) which is close to just -7%.
♦ US Crude oil: Consider -20% drawdown.
It is well-known that relative drawdown reached a figure of around -100% in 2020 before recovery. However let’s consider that to be unlikely to happen in the future and take the worst performance per year which was -20% for the last 5 years.
♦ Gold/XAUUSD: Consider -5.81% drawdown (long). Consider -27% drawdown from a short position.
Gold prices have surged by approximately 30% in 2025, continuing their strong upward trend from previous years. A sharp decline seems unlikely but a 10% pullback could occur if economic conditions improve and investors shift towards riskier assets.
♦ EUR/USD: Consider -15% drawdown from the short position.
In this strategy, we take a short position on the FX CFD, aiming to profit from the appreciation of the USD against the EUR. The pair experienced its worst relative drawdown in 2020, reaching approximately -15%. As of 2025, it is currently exhibiting a 12% performance.
The below takes into account multiple figures for estimating the upside potential. These figures include among others historical data and analysts estimates. It also takes into account that the startegy is passive only even though regular rebalancing takes place and other actions such as averaging when appropriate, serving the best interest of the portfolio and followers of the strategy.
– Underlying Asset: US Stocks –
After carefully analyzing the fundamentals of a group of US stocks and current market conditions for this year, we selected the below stocks for this strategy. Pfizer, PayPal, Exxon, Amazon, Apple, and Microsoft offers a well-balanced mix of healthcare, financial technology, energy, and technology sectors. This diversified selection balances growth potential with defensive assets, making it resilient to market fluctuations.
This strategy allocates 10% of the investment amount to these stocks.
Pfizer Inc / NYSE:PFE
Initial assessment date: 19.04.2025
Pfizer’s stock is currently trading at a low valuation, making it potentially attractive for investors. Despite recent struggles, the company has resumed growth, with revenues surging 32% year-over-year in its latest earnings report. Additionally, Pfizer is focusing on expanding its oncology business, which could drive future profitability.
PFE Seasonals – Performance per Year
PFE Analysis & Forecast
♦ Price: 22.14 USD Fair Value: 32.18 USD (undervalued) Upside: 45.3%
♦ Analysts Sentiment: 30.16 USD (BUY) Upside: 36.24%
♦ Company Performance and Financial Health: Good
♦ Seasonals: Based on 4Year Average -20% Upside: -3.45%
♦ Sector: Healthcare
PFE 2025 Performance
PFE Current Performance
PayPal Holdings Inc / NASDAQGS:PYPL
Initial assessment date: 19.04.2025
PayPal’s stock is trading below $100, making it an attractive buy for investors looking for a fintech company with growth potential. The company is launching the “PayPal Everywhere” campaign, expanding beyond online payments into physical retail. Collaborations with Verifone, Shopify, and Fiserv aim to enhance checkout experiences.
PYPL Seasonals – Performance per Year
PYPL Analysis & Forecast
♦ Price: 61.00 USD Fair Value: 92.32 USD (undervalued) Upside: 51.35%
♦ Analysts Sentiment: 86.03 USD (BUY) Upside: 41.03%
♦ Company Performance and Financial Health: Good
♦ Seasonals: Based on 4Year Average -18% Upside: 11.35%
♦ Sector: Financial Services / Credit Services
PYPL 2025 Performance
PYPL Current Performance
Exxon Mobil Corp / NYSE:XOM
Initial assessment date: 20.04.2025
It is considered one of the best undervalued energy stocks. The company is investing $30 billion in low-carbon projects while maintaining strong oil and gas production. Exxon plans to double its earnings potential by 2027 through strategic investments in low-cost-of-supply projects and high-value performance chemicals. Anticipated policy changes under the new U.S. administration could ease restrictions on drilling and emissions, boosting Exxon’s margins. It is also benefiting from the growing demand for natural gas, driven by electricity needs and energy exports.
XOM Seasonals – Performance per Year
XOM Analysis & Forecast
♦ Price: 106.92 USD Fair Value: 126.20 USD (undervalued) Upside: 18.03%
♦ Analysts Sentiment: 124.83 USD (BUY) Upside: 16.75%
♦ Company Performance and Financial Health: Good
♦ Seasonals: Based on 4Year Average 18% Upside: 18.41%
♦ Sector: Energy / Oil & Gas
XOM 2025 Performance
XOM Current Performance
Amazon.com Inc / NASDAQGS:AMZN
Initial assessment date: 20.04.2025
The company has a strong presence in e-commerce, cloud computing, and artificial intelligence. Amazon Web Services (AWS) remains the leader in cloud computing. It still commands 40% of the U.S. e-commerce market and is expanding its AI capabilities, positioning Amazon as a competitor to Nvidia in the AI chip market. Major investment firms like Morgan Stanley and Citigroup have reiterated their Buy ratings on Amazon, with price targets suggesting significant upside potential.
AMZN Seasonals – Performance per Year
AMZN Analysis & Forecast
♦ Price: 172.61 USD Fair Value: 212.21 USD (undervalued) Upside: 22.94%
♦ Analysts Sentiment: 151.50 USD (BUY) Upside: 45.70%
♦ Company Performance and Financial Health: Good
♦ Seasonals: Based on 4Year Average 8% Upside: 19.67%
♦ Sector: Consumer Cyclical / Internet Retail Industry
AMZN 2025 Performance
AMZN Current Performance
Apple Inc / NASDAQGS:AAPL
Initial assessment date: 20.04.2025
Apple remains the largest company in the world, ahead of competitors like Nvidia and Microsoft. Its ecosystem ensures high customer retention, making its revenue streams more predictable. The company has committed to spending over $500 billion in the U.S. over the next four years and has stability in regards to dividend making it attractive for investors. Notably, it is getting deeper into AI-driven healthcare solutions, which could be a major growth area.
AAPL Seasonals – Performance per Year
AAPL Analysis & Forecast
♦ Price: 196.98 USD Fair Value: 177.74 USD Upside: -9.77%
♦ Analysts Sentiment: 237.39 USD (BUY) Upside: 20.51%
♦ Company Performance and Financial Health: Good
♦ Seasonals: Based on 4Year Average 10% Upside: 28.97%
♦ Sector: Technology / Consumer Electronics
AAPL 2025 Performance
AAPL Current Performance
Microsoft Corporation / NASDAQGS:MSFT
Initial assessment date: 20.04.2025
The company has a strong positioning in artificial intelligence, cloud computing, and enterprise software. It continues to expand its AI capabilities, particularly through its partnership with OpenAI, making Azure a dominant force in AI-driven cloud computing. The company is leveraging AI and cloud innovations to maintain its competitive edge, despite premium valuations. Moreover, its portfolio spans gaming (Xbox), cloud computing (Azure), AI, cybersecurity, and enterprise solutions, ensuring stability across different markets. Its strong balance sheet and steady revenue streams make it a reliable long-term investment.
MSFT Seasonals – Performance per Year
MSFT Analysis & Forecast
♦ Price: 367.78 USD Fair Value: 384.62 USD Upside: 4.58%
♦ Analysts Sentiment: 494.61 USD (BUY) Upside: 34.49%
♦ Company Performance and Financial Health: Good
♦ Seasonals: Based on 4Year Average 10% Upside: 28.97%
♦ Sector: Technology / Software Infrastructure Industry
MSFT 2025 Performance
MSFT Current Performance
– Underlying Asset: US Stock Indices –
Allocating a % to a stock index provides broad exposure to a big number of large U.S. companies across multiple sectors, reducing risk compared to individual stock picks. This is a step towards diversification and stability when it comes to investing in the US equities market. For this risk-reward balanced strategy we choose the US500 (S&P 500) Index, a benchmark that tracks the performance of 500 large-cap U.S. companies across various sectors. By including the S&P 500, we ensure broad exposure to the U.S. economy, balancing high-growth stocks with defensive assets for stability and expansion.
We are aiming to capture effectively sector diversity, balancing technology, healthcare, energy, and financial services while leveraging the stability of the broader market index.
This strategy allocates 30% of the investment amount to this stock index and 10% to individual stocks. This is a total of 40% allocation of the initial investment to US equities. The portfolio selection reflects a strategic mix of industry leaders, balancing growth, stability, and sector diversification to optimize returns.
Standard and Poor’s 500 Index (S&P500)
Initial assessment date: 27.04.2025
The S&P 500 Index (or US500) is a market-capitalization-weighted index that tracks 500 leading publicly traded companies in the U.S. It serves as a benchmark for the overall stock market, reflecting the performance of major industries such as technology, healthcare, finance, and energy.
S&P500 Seasonals – Performance per Year
S&P500 Analysis & Forecast
The index has shown resilience over the past few years, experiencing strong gains in 2021 (+26.89%), 2023 (+24.23%), and 2024 (+23.31%) as economic recovery and tech sector expansion fueled growth. However, 2022 (-19.44%) saw a sharp decline due to inflation concerns and aggressive interest rate hikes, and 2025 (-12.3% YTD) has faced market corrections and economic uncertainty.
♦ Price: 5,525 USD
♦ Seasonals: Based on 4Year Average 5.73% Upside: 11.60%
♦ Sector: Large sectors include Financials and Health Care, but none surpass the dominance of Information Technology
S&P500 2025 Performance
S&P500 Current Performance
– Underlying Asset: Crypto –
We allocate 10% of the initial investment to cryptocurrencies, aiming for a high-risk, high-reward element to the portfolio. This allocation enhances diversification and exposure to potential upside without excessive volatility risk.
A portfolio with 40% US equities and 10% cryptocurrency leans toward an aggressive investment approach, particularly due to the high-growth and high-volatility nature of the assets. However 40% allocation to commodities provides a strong stabilizing force, balancing the aggressive nature of stocks (40%) and crypto (10%).
This strategy allocates a total of 50% to the above risk assets. It leans toward moderate-to-high risk, given that a high % is allocated to volatile assets like stocks and cryptocurrencies.
BTC/USD – Bitcoin US Dollar
Initial assessment date: 21.04.2025
Bitcoin is a decentralized digital currency that allows peer-to-peer transactions without the need for a central authority like a bank. There will only ever be 21 million bitcoins in existence, making it a scarce asset.
Macroeconomic uncertainty and rising interest rates can cause a large decline of its value while market optimism can cause strong recoveries and growth.
BTC/USD Seasonals – Performance per Year
BTC/USD Analysis & Forecast
Bitcoin’s performance in 2025 is expected to be shaped by institutional adoption, regulatory developments, and macroeconomic conditions. Analysts predict Bitcoin could reach between $115,000 and $167,598, depending on market trends.
♦ Price: 87.283 USD
♦ Seasonals: Based on 4Year Average 48.25% Upside: 55.5%
♦ Sector: Financial Services sector / Cryptocurrency and Blockchain Technology industries
BTC/USD 2025 Performance
BTC/USD Current Performance
– Underlying Asset: Commodities –
We allocate 40% of the initial investment to commodities such as US crude oil and gold. This allocation to commodities provides a strong stabilizing force, balancing the aggressive nature of the other risk-assets. Commodities, particularly crude oil and industrial metals, offer economic growth exposure and serve as an inflation hedge, ensuring resilience during market downturns.
This structure helps mitigate risk while maintaining high-growth potential, allowing your portfolio to capture both volatility-driven gains and macroeconomic stability. Given this balance, the strategy remains well-hedged. Commodities and forex can help hedge against stock and crypto volatility, ensuring resilience while maintaining growth potential.
US Crude Oil / WTI
Initial assessment date: 21.04.2025
The U.S. remains the top oil producer, reinforcing its dominance in global energy markets. Crude oil’s demand is projected to be strong this year and the market to be stable.
Cash CFD Crude oil’s price is derived by futures, from the underlying futures markets. CFD Symbol is XTIUSD or USOIL or similar.
WTI Seasonals – Performance per Year
WTI Analysis & Forecast
Energy remains a core sector, benefiting from industrial growth and geopolitical shifts. If uncertainty lowers this year and the economy is heading towards expansion, this will fuel higher industrial output, which boosts oil consumption. Sectors like manufacturing, transportation, and tech require energy, driving oil prices upward.
♦ Price: 62.79 USD
♦ Seasonals: Based on 4Year Average – 4.32% Upside: 9.35%
♦ Sector: Energy / Oil & Gas
WTI 2025 Performance
WTI Current Performance
Gold / XAUUSD
Initial assessment date: 27.04.2025
Gold has experienced a strong upward trend in recent years, driven by inflation concerns, central bank demand, and geopolitical uncertainty. This year, 2025, gold prices have continued their rally, reaching record highs above $3,275 per ounce. Analysts attribute this surge to economic instability, trade tensions, and increased institutional buying.
Cash CFD Gold’s price is derived by futures, from the underlying futures markets. CFD Symbol is XAUUSD or similar.
XAU/USD Seasonals – Performance per Year
Source: https://www.tradingview.com/symbols/XAUUSD/?exchange=FOREXCOM
XAU/USD Analysis & Forecast
While gold remains a safe-haven asset, future corrections could occur if interest rates stabilize and speculative positions unwind. Gold is currently undergoing a correction after reaching highs of $3,500 per ounce. Some experts anticipate a moderation in growth, with potential corrections of 2-3% in the coming months.
♦ Price: 3,319 USD Current Performance (2025): 24.87%
♦ Seasonals: Based on 4Year Average 16.42% Short Position Potential Gain: 8.44%
XAU/USD 2025 Performance
XAU/USD Current Performance
– Underlying Asset: Currencies –
CFD trading in Forex, USD pairs, allows quick adjustments based on market trends and economic events. In this strategy we are allocating the remaining 20% to USD. Shorting EUR/USD means speculating that the U.S. dollar will strenghneed relative to the euro. This aligns with an investment strategy that favors USD exposure. If the U.S. economy outperforms the Eurozone, the dollar strengthens.
EUR/USD has grown significantly in 2025 despite a risk-off environment and higher interest rates, it suggests some unusual market forces at play. U.S. economic data has weakened, investors might be selling dollars in favor of alternative assets.
We expect the risk-off mood to weaken eventually. The USD may strengthen due to capital inflows into US stocks.
EUR/USD
Initial assessment date: 21.04.2025
The EUR/USD pair has been on a strong upward trend in 2025, reaching four-year highs. The movement of this pair is influenced by both currencies, so this year’s rally can be attributed to a combination of euro strength and dollar weakness.
The HP approach suggests short-selling the pair, as it has reached an unusually high level of performance this year. This implies speculating that the US dollar will eventually strengthen.
EUR/USD Seasonals – Performance per Year
EUR/USD Analysis & Forecast
The US Dollar Index fell to its lowest since March 2022, as traders lost confidence in the US economy. This was mainly due to growing expectations of Fed rate cuts, political uncertainty, and weaker economic data. On the other hand, the Eurozone economy showed resilience, with inflation cooling but remaining stable.
♦ Price: 1.15 USD Current Performance (2025): 12.10%
♦ Seasonals: Based on 4Year Average 1.24% Short Position Potential Gain: 10.8%
EUR/USD 2025 Performance
